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Will turnout in the first round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential election be between 49% and 50%?

data as of 2026-01-19 10:17 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$68−$4.3K$4.4K
Holders34+925
Trades138+4692
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate16.0%
−72.5 pp
88.5%
Avg ROI48.2%
+45.7 pp
2.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×3.25
+2.26×
×0.99
Top-20 avg cost vs price×21.29
+20.30×
×0.98
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1
−$580
$580
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-94.9%
−96.7 pp
1.7%
Underwater %64.4%
+63.8 pp
0.6%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %29.9%
−55.0 pp
85.0%
Bot %29.9%
−55.5 pp
85.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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