How OddSharps defines the smart-money and prediction-market terms behind every signal — all measured against markets that actually resolved, not paper PnL.
- Settle-verified win rate
- A wallet's win rate computed only from Polymarket markets that have actually resolved — the share of resolved positions that won. Unlike paper PnL it ignores open, unrealized positions, so it can't be inflated by bets that haven't settled yet.
- Realized win rate
- Win rate over every position whose outcome is locked in — markets held to settlement plus positions closed (sold) before settlement. It is a wallet’s full realized track record, a larger sample than settle-only.
- Sharp side
- On a given market, the outcome that the higher-track-record ("smarter") money is positioned on. OddSharps labels each market as leaning to one outcome, MIXED, or INSUFFICIENT when there is too little history.
- Holder cost basis
- The average price at which each side's current holders entered their positions, shown against the live price — it reveals whether a side's holders are in profit or underwater.
- Smart-money flow
- Net recent buying by wallets with strong settle-verified records. Positive flow means proven winners are accumulating a side.
- Paper PnL vs realized PnL
- Paper (unrealized) PnL marks open positions to the current price and can swing without any trade; realized PnL counts only closed or settled outcomes. OddSharps win rates use realized/settled results, never paper.
- Profit factor
- Gross winning dollars divided by gross losing dollars. Above 1.0 means a wallet’s winners outweigh its losers; the higher the ratio, the more durable the edge.
- Shark
- A wallet class: at least $10,000 in settled profit across at least 10 resolved markets — the smart-money gate the whale feed filters on.
- Smart wallet
- A wallet class: at least a 60% win rate with low drawdown and a profit factor of 1.5 or higher.
- Underwater %
- The share of a side's holders currently sitting at a loss versus their cost basis — a high figure signals trapped, potentially forced sellers.
- OddSharps score
- A 0–100 composite rating of a wallet, moved by its settle win-rate edge, profit factor, sample size and net profitability. A stated formula over real stats, not an opaque black box.