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Will Wally Daudrich win the 2026 Pas-Kameesak Manitoba Legislative Assembly by-election?

data as of 2026-07-02 21:24 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 21, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
6¢
NO
75¢
YES
6¢
YesY-NNo
Position$7−$15$22
Holders2+11
Trades2+11
NO
75¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate80.0%
+6.1 pp
73.9%
Avg ROI813.4%
+791.6 pp
21.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×5.00
+4.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×4.18
+3.18×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$7
−$15
$22
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-76.1%
−76.1 pp
0.0%
Underwater %79.4%
+79.4 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %79.4%
+79.4 pp
0.0%
Bot %79.4%
+79.4 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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