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Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be between 3% and 4%?

data as of 2026-03-03 15:05 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$80−$4.7K$4.7K
Holders63+657
Trades547+252295
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate46.2%
−18.1 pp
64.4%
Avg ROI10.9%
+4.8 pp
6.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×9.00
+8.02×
×0.98
Top-20 avg cost vs price×8.71
+7.74×
×0.97
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1
−$296
$297
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-89.0%
−93.0 pp
4.0%
Underwater %79.5%
+68.1 pp
11.4%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %27.2%
−62.6 pp
89.7%
Bot %27.2%
−62.6 pp
89.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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