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Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30?

data as of 2026-04-23 22:40 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jun 30, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
2¢
NO
97¢
YES
2¢
YesY-NNo
Position$2.1K−$13K$15K
Holders94+787
Trades1.1K+95989
NO
97¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate41.6%
−30.8 pp
72.4%
Avg ROI27.0%
+26.4 pp
0.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×4.05
+3.18×
×0.87
Top-20 avg cost vs price×4.16
+3.30×
×0.86
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$170
+$5.2K
−$5.1K
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-81.4%
−99.2 pp
17.8%
Underwater %88.8%
+88.8 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %34.6%
+27.8 pp
6.8%
Bot %43.8%
+36.9 pp
7.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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