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Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET

data as of 2026-05-04 19:25 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$2.2K−$20K$22K
Holders150+37113
Trades1.1K+129951
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate46.4%
−20.5 pp
66.9%
Avg ROI-5.0%
−5.5 pp
0.6%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×7.79
+7.01×
×0.78
Top-20 avg cost vs price×7.29
+6.55×
×0.75
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$572
−$3.2K
$3.8K
Recent buyer dominance0.97
+0.07
0.90
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-87.6%
−117.1 pp
29.5%
Underwater %98.6%
+98.6 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %58.6%
−23.1 pp
81.6%
Bot %60.0%
−24.6 pp
84.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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