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Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?

data as of 2026-06-27 02:37 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 4, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
84¢
NO
16¢
YES
84¢
YesY-NNo
Position$74+$60$14
Holders1−12
Trades1−12
NO
16¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate71.4%
+33.3 pp
38.1%
Avg ROI34.0%
+34.0 pp
0.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$74
+$60
$14
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Underwater %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
−57.0 pp
57.0%
Bot %0.0%
−57.0 pp
57.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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