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Will American Promise win the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

data as of 2025-05-03 23:08 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$3.1K−$39K$42K
Holders91+5338
Trades779−137916
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate36.8%
−16.7 pp
53.6%
Avg ROI3.5%
−0.3 pp
3.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×24.00
+23.06×
×0.95
Top-20 avg cost vs price×22.83
+21.88×
×0.95
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$12
−$689
$701
Recent buyer dominance0.60
−0.26
0.86
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-95.5%
−100.9 pp
5.4%
Underwater %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %12.4%
−23.5 pp
35.9%
Bot %3.6%
−32.3 pp
35.9%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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