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Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

data as of 2026-06-13 08:52 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
51¢
NO
49¢
YES
51¢
YesY-NNo
Position$911+$466$445
Holders28−1846
Trades74−51125
NO
49¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate43.7%
+5.4 pp
38.3%
Avg ROI6.1%
+6.9 pp
-0.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.21
+0.43×
×0.77
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.18
+0.39×
×0.79
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$212
+$77
$135
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.22
0.78
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-15.6%
−41.1 pp
25.5%
Underwater %96.7%
+96.7 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %12.0%
−73.4 pp
85.3%
Bot %12.0%
−74.9 pp
86.9%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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