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Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?

data as of 2026-07-26 22:49 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Dec 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
63¢
NO
36¢
YES
63¢
YesY-NNo
Position$41−$4$45
Holders1−56
Trades1−89
NO
36¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate68.1%
+30.5 pp
37.6%
Avg ROI6.9%
+5.9 pp
1.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
−0.42×
×1.42
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.00
−0.39×
×1.39
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$41
+$48
−$7
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL0.0%
+28.0 pp
-28.0%
Underwater %0.0%
−94.4 pp
94.4%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
−27.8 pp
27.8%
Bot %0.0%
−27.8 pp
27.8%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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