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Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 4?

data as of 2026-07-03 03:42 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 4, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
22¢
NO
78¢
YES
22¢
YesY-NNo
Position$5−$37$42
Holders3+12
Trades6+33
NO
78¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate80.1%
+13.6 pp
66.5%
Avg ROI-0.5%
−20.0 pp
19.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.02
+0.02×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1
−$4
$5
Recent buyer dominance0.67
−0.33
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-1.8%
−1.8 pp
0.0%
Underwater %40.9%
+40.9 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %40.9%
+40.9 pp
0.0%
Bot %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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