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Will Trump accuse Mexico of election interference by July 16?

data as of 2026-07-14 04:51 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 16, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
5¢
NO
94¢
YES
5¢
YesY-NNo
Position$8−$1.2K$1.2K
Holders7−1017
Trades21−1435
NO
94¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate36.1%
+10.5 pp
25.6%
Avg ROI-0.7%
+1.2 pp
-1.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×2.20
+1.20×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.62
+0.61×
×1.01
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
−$1.0K
$1.0K
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-38.2%
−37.7 pp
-0.5%
Underwater %54.8%
−0.5 pp
55.3%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
−9.1 pp
9.1%
Bot %0.0%
−20.4 pp
20.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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