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Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET

data as of 2026-01-15 10:00 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$39K−$31K$70K
Holders392−78470
Trades8.9K+28.9K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate32.7%
−37.8 pp
70.4%
Avg ROI35.6%
+34.9 pp
0.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×10.28
+9.75×
×0.53
Top-20 avg cost vs price×9.02
+8.37×
×0.65
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$16.0K
−$22.8K
$38.8K
Recent buyer dominance0.79
−0.09
0.87
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-88.3%
−148.3 pp
60.0%
Underwater %81.0%
+59.4 pp
21.7%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %67.2%
+4.3 pp
63.0%
Bot %66.8%
+4.6 pp
62.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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