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Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?

data as of 2026-07-24 00:46 UTC▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Dec 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
32¢
NO
69¢
YES
32¢
YesY-NNo
Position$31−$93$125
Holders4−610
Trades4−1519
NO
69¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate27.4%
−11.5 pp
38.9%
Avg ROI-5.1%
−10.9 pp
5.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
−0.16×
×1.16
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.02
−0.14×
×1.15
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$13
+$112
−$99
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-1.5%
+11.6 pp
-13.1%
Underwater %49.9%
−50.1 pp
100.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Bot %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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