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Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

data as of 2024-11-06 02:54 UTC● RESOLVEDYes won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES✓ WON
100¢
NO
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
100¢
YesY-NNo
Position$210M+$96M$114M
Holders134K+57K77K
Trades3.44M+1.79M1.65M
NO
0¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate52.9%
−11.1 pp
64.0%
Avg ROI16.4%
+8.6 pp
7.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.61
−34.03×
×34.64
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.59
−34.08×
×34.66
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$348.9K
−$344.7K
−$4.1K
Recent buyer dominance0.16
−0.28
0.44
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL67.7%
+164.7 pp
-97.0%
Underwater %0.0%
−99.8 pp
99.8%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %41.8%
−18.1 pp
59.9%
Bot %20.2%
−29.5 pp
49.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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