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Will Tom Davis be the TN-04 Republican nominee?

data as of 2026-07-23 19:46 UTC▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Aug 6, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
2¢
NO
97¢
YES
2¢
YesY-NNo
Position$1−$38$39
Holders2+11
Trades2+11
NO
97¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate31.0%
−59.0 pp
90.0%
Avg ROI54.4%
+54.1 pp
0.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.50
+0.50×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.42
+0.42×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1
−$38
$39
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-29.4%
−29.4 pp
0.0%
Underwater %83.4%
+83.4 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %83.4%
+83.4 pp
0.0%
Bot %83.4%
−16.6 pp
100.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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