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Will Carlos Vila Nova win the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?

data as of 2026-07-03 10:26 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 19, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
48¢
NO
52¢
YES
48¢
YesY-NNo
Position$236−$131$367
Holders2−1719
Trades9−3039
NO
52¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate59.4%
+36.7 pp
22.7%
Avg ROI32.7%
+35.0 pp
-2.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.97
−0.05×
×1.02
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.97
−0.05×
×1.02
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$449
−$62
$511
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL2.6%
+4.9 pp
-2.3%
Underwater %0.0%
−89.1 pp
89.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
−7.4 pp
7.4%
Bot %0.0%
−7.4 pp
7.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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