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Will Federico Valverde win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

data as of 2026-04-14 21:29 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Oct 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO
100¢
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$65−$9.6K$9.7K
Holders25−4772
Trades925+564361
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate41.5%
−41.9 pp
83.4%
Avg ROI9.4%
+10.0 pp
-0.6%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×2.20
+1.20×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
+$0
$0
Recent buyer dominance0.50
+0.50
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-54.5%
−55.0 pp
0.5%
Underwater %22.6%
+22.6 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %5.9%
−84.4 pp
90.3%
Bot %5.9%
−84.4 pp
90.3%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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