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Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?

data as of 2026-01-20 22:04 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$2.8K−$11K$14K
Holders104+3569
Trades2.1K+1.2K938
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate54.5%
−14.5 pp
69.0%
Avg ROI8.6%
+5.5 pp
3.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×12.38
+11.70×
×0.68
Top-20 avg cost vs price×11.48
+10.75×
×0.73
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$1
−$277
$276
Recent buyer dominance0.37
−0.61
0.98
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-91.2%
−129.0 pp
37.8%
Underwater %99.0%
+99.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %51.3%
−1.2 pp
52.4%
Bot %49.3%
−2.0 pp
51.3%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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