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Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Cup?

data as of 2025-10-30 22:13 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$103−$6.4K$6.5K
Holders34+2014
Trades157+10255
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate45.0%
−21.7 pp
66.7%
Avg ROI4.9%
−2.5 pp
7.4%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.93
−0.08×
×1.01
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.91
+0.90×
×1.01
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
+$0
$0
Recent buyer dominance0.50
+0.50
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-44.3%
−43.1 pp
-1.2%
Underwater %33.8%
−62.0 pp
95.8%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %2.1%
+2.0 pp
0.1%
Bot %20.7%
+20.7 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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