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Will February 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?

data as of 2026-02-10 08:10 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$279−$27K$27K
Holders158+20138
Trades1.3K+524795
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate45.4%
−30.6 pp
76.1%
Avg ROI21.0%
+4.1 pp
16.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×4.34
+3.39×
×0.96
Top-20 avg cost vs price×3.50
+2.55×
×0.95
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$11
−$605
$617
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-73.5%
−78.6 pp
5.1%
Underwater %80.3%
+79.6 pp
0.7%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %66.3%
−9.4 pp
75.7%
Bot %66.4%
−9.3 pp
75.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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