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Will Microsoft be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?

data as of 2026-07-27 02:40 UTC▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Sep 30, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
7¢
NO
93¢
YES
7¢
YesY-NNo
Position$2−$14$16
Holders303
Trades4+13
NO
93¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate0.0%
−68.2 pp
68.2%
Avg ROI0.0%
−9.6 pp
9.6%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
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██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.86
−0.14×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.89
−0.11×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1
−$3
$5
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL12.2%
+12.2 pp
0.0%
Underwater %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Bot %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
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██
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