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Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?

data as of 2026-05-12 13:12 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$4.1K−$36K$40K
Holders120−9129
Trades986+19967
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate58.4%
−21.8 pp
80.2%
Avg ROI9.6%
+5.7 pp
3.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×3.94
+3.03×
×0.91
Top-20 avg cost vs price×9.76
+8.87×
×0.89
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$233
−$13.3K
$13.5K
Recent buyer dominance0.90
−0.09
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-91.9%
−106.0 pp
14.1%
Underwater %99.6%
+99.6 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %8.0%
−14.4 pp
22.4%
Bot %11.5%
−11.0 pp
22.5%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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