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Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?

data as of 2026-04-21 13:04 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$1.3K−$3.7K$5.0K
Holders77−1693
Trades780+207573
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate50.1%
−21.1 pp
71.2%
Avg ROI5.0%
+1.5 pp
3.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×16.30
+15.46×
×0.83
Top-20 avg cost vs price×17.20
+16.37×
×0.83
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$23
−$189
$211
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.29
0.71
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-94.3%
−114.9 pp
20.6%
Underwater %99.7%
+99.7 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %16.2%
−8.8 pp
25.0%
Bot %16.3%
−9.2 pp
25.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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