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Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on March 4?

data as of 2026-03-04 19:11 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$834−$9.4K$10K
Holders111−121232
Trades981−321.0K
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate44.8%
−30.8 pp
75.6%
Avg ROI11.3%
+12.5 pp
-1.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×2.96
+2.03×
×0.93
Top-20 avg cost vs price×2.99
+2.06×
×0.94
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$23
−$327
$350
Recent buyer dominance0.98
−0.02
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-69.8%
−77.7 pp
8.0%
Underwater %89.2%
+81.6 pp
7.6%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %44.0%
+11.8 pp
32.2%
Bot %45.2%
+13.8 pp
31.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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