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Will Republican House incumbents not win in between seven and nine nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

data as of 2026-01-15 00:33 UTC✓ on-chain◆ Even win rates🗓️ settles Nov 4, 2020Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
1¢
NO
99¢
YES
1¢
YesY-NNo
Position$182−$1.9K$2.1K
Holders23−427
Trades252+18963
NO
99¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Avg ROI0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
−$5
$5
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Underwater %0.0%
+0.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %100.0%
+0.0 pp
100.0%
Bot %100.0%
+0.0 pp
100.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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