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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET

data as of 2026-07-04 05:00 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$19K−$54K$73K
Holders489−144633
Trades4.7K+1754.5K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate55.4%
−5.5 pp
61.0%
Avg ROI3.8%
−3.8 pp
7.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.43
−1.39×
×1.82
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.57
−0.96×
×1.52
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$15.7K
−$35.5K
$51.2K
Recent buyer dominance0.85
−0.12
0.97
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL87.5%
+123.8 pp
-36.3%
Underwater %15.0%
−63.8 pp
78.8%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %36.2%
−2.4 pp
38.5%
Bot %35.2%
−8.6 pp
43.8%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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