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Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET

data as of 2026-03-04 21:44 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$20K−$30K$50K
Holders453+60393
Trades6.1K+4565.6K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate41.6%
−14.2 pp
55.8%
Avg ROI7.6%
+8.1 pp
-0.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×18.66
+18.01×
×0.66
Top-20 avg cost vs price×17.93
+17.26×
×0.67
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$18.5K
−$20.1K
$38.5K
Recent buyer dominance0.92
+0.04
0.88
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-93.9%
−146.4 pp
52.5%
Underwater %99.1%
+96.8 pp
2.3%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %72.0%
−9.8 pp
81.8%
Bot %71.8%
−9.6 pp
81.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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