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Will anyone say "Best Hot Dog" during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

data as of 2026-07-04 18:21 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 4, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
83¢
NO
15¢
YES
83¢
YesY-NNo
Position$315+$299$16
Holders11+92
Trades17+89
NO
15¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate83.5%
+38.8 pp
44.8%
Avg ROI-1.4%
−0.4 pp
-0.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.01
+0.01×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.01
+0.01×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
−$2
$2
Recent buyer dominance0.00
−1.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-1.1%
−1.1 pp
0.0%
Underwater %73.2%
+73.2 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %26.8%
+26.8 pp
0.0%
Bot %26.8%
+26.8 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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