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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET

data as of 2026-07-04 06:15 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$17K+$10K$6.2K
Holders183+63120
Trades2.3K+1942.1K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate46.8%
−2.1 pp
48.8%
Avg ROI5.2%
+4.4 pp
0.8%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×62.52
+62.20×
×0.32
Top-20 avg cost vs price×62.94
+62.61×
×0.33
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$7.5K
+$5.5K
$2.0K
Recent buyer dominance0.93
+0.29
0.64
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-98.4%
−296.4 pp
198.0%
Underwater %99.0%
+99.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %57.3%
+0.8 pp
56.5%
Bot %67.3%
−7.2 pp
74.4%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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