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Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?

data as of 2026-07-01 19:42 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Dec 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
8¢
NO
90¢
YES
8¢
YesY-NNo
Position$19+$19$0
Holders6+60
Trades6+51
NO
90¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate57.9%
+57.9 pp
0.0%
Avg ROI33.3%
+33.3 pp
0.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.75
+1.75×
×0.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.56
+1.56×
×0.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$5
+$13
−$8
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-35.7%
−35.7 pp
0.0%
Underwater %69.9%
+69.9 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %21.5%
+21.5 pp
0.0%
Bot %21.5%
+21.5 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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