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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

data as of 2026-07-04 05:44 UTC● RESOLVEDUp won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP✓ WON
100¢
DOWN
0¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
100¢
UpU-DDown
Position$10K+$7.3K$3.0K
Holders126−18144
Trades1.3K+441.3K
DOWN
0¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate51.1%
−1.9 pp
53.0%
Avg ROI0.3%
−9.5 pp
9.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.71
−12.19×
×12.90
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.70
−11.59×
×12.29
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$6.1K
+$4.6K
$1.5K
Recent buyer dominance0.96
−0.00
0.96
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL42.0%
+134.1 pp
-92.1%
Underwater %0.0%
−98.7 pp
98.7%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %62.0%
+17.1 pp
44.9%
Bot %70.2%
+20.6 pp
49.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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