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Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -2% and 0% in May?

data as of 2026-06-06 14:14 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jun 25, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
13¢
NO
93¢
YES
13¢
YesY-NNo
Position$127−$410$537
Holders23+122
Trades157+10948
NO
93¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate30.8%
−50.3 pp
81.1%
Avg ROI-6.3%
−6.4 pp
0.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.07
+0.09×
×0.97
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.91
−0.08×
×0.98
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1
−$17
$18
Recent buyer dominance0.56
−0.44
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL10.5%
+8.9 pp
1.6%
Underwater %62.6%
+42.6 pp
19.9%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %32.4%
+8.7 pp
23.7%
Bot %25.2%
−12.0 pp
37.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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