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Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

data as of 2026-06-18 11:47 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Sep 16, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
6¢
NO
94¢
YES
6¢
YesY-NNo
Position$4.1K−$36K$40K
Holders199+98101
Trades1.0K+336702
NO
94¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate33.6%
−45.9 pp
79.5%
Avg ROI12.4%
+5.9 pp
6.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.36
+0.38×
×0.98
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.35
+0.37×
×0.98
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$75
−$1.1K
$1.2K
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-24.6%
−26.7 pp
2.1%
Underwater %68.0%
+39.8 pp
28.2%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %31.8%
+17.4 pp
14.4%
Bot %16.9%
−3.3 pp
20.3%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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