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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET

data as of 2026-07-05 02:09 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$1.6K−$1.9K$3.5K
Holders88−189
Trades613+87526
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate38.2%
−11.3 pp
49.5%
Avg ROI3.1%
−3.3 pp
6.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×8.00
+7.22×
×0.78
Top-20 avg cost vs price×7.29
+6.53×
×0.76
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$310
−$1.9K
$2.2K
Recent buyer dominance0.95
−0.01
0.96
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-88.0%
−123.2 pp
35.2%
Underwater %98.2%
+97.7 pp
0.4%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %24.4%
−23.9 pp
48.3%
Bot %38.9%
−20.8 pp
59.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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