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Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary by between 6% and 9.00%?

data as of 2026-03-04 01:05 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$218−$1.5K$1.7K
Holders29+1118
Trades167+7493
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate54.4%
+0.3 pp
54.0%
Avg ROI15.3%
+18.3 pp
-3.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.96
−0.05×
×1.01
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.81
−0.24×
×1.04
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$8
+$12
−$19
Recent buyer dominance0.41
+0.09
0.32
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL19.2%
+23.2 pp
-4.0%
Underwater %26.7%
−51.3 pp
78.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %27.4%
−7.5 pp
34.9%
Bot %44.9%
+8.0 pp
36.9%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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