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Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?

data as of 2025-12-10 15:38 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$3.3K−$45K$48K
Holders172+59113
Trades1.2K+317860
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate44.7%
−16.5 pp
61.2%
Avg ROI18.5%
+16.8 pp
1.7%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.64
−0.36×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×9.42
+8.46×
×0.97
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$22
−$6.1K
$6.1K
Recent buyer dominance0.89
−0.11
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-94.2%
−100.6 pp
6.4%
Underwater %43.7%
−10.9 pp
54.6%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %40.6%
+9.8 pp
30.9%
Bot %5.3%
−25.6 pp
30.9%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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