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Another US bank failure by February 28?

data as of 2026-02-28 11:53 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$1.3K−$6.2K$7.5K
Holders75−33108
Trades854+212642
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate41.8%
−12.0 pp
53.8%
Avg ROI2.5%
+2.0 pp
0.5%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×13.90
+13.02×
×0.88
Top-20 avg cost vs price×17.22
+16.33×
×0.89
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$16
+$724
−$707
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+1.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-94.7%
−109.0 pp
14.3%
Underwater %100.0%
+100.0 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %47.9%
+31.9 pp
16.0%
Bot %50.3%
+34.3 pp
16.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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