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Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by less than 3%?

data as of 2026-05-19 23:07 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles May 19, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
6¢
NO
94¢
YES
6¢
YesY-NNo
Position$1.2K−$6.1K$7.3K
Holders28+1018
Trades187+68119
NO
94¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate46.9%
−17.7 pp
64.6%
Avg ROI6.9%
+7.1 pp
-0.2%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×2.50
+1.61×
×0.89
Top-20 avg cost vs price×2.57
+1.68×
×0.89
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$85
−$1.2K
$1.3K
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.00
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-61.0%
−72.7 pp
11.7%
Underwater %76.7%
+76.5 pp
0.1%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %5.2%
−86.1 pp
91.3%
Bot %4.9%
−86.2 pp
91.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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