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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET

data as of 2025-10-04 01:18 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$11K+$10K$1.0K
Holders10+28
Trades134+5579
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate95.8%
+56.5 pp
39.3%
Avg ROI47.7%
+28.8 pp
18.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.39
+0.27×
×1.12
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.38
+0.30×
×1.08
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$121
+$53
$67
Recent buyer dominance0.94
−0.06
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-27.6%
−20.5 pp
-7.0%
Underwater %98.2%
+22.9 pp
75.3%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %2.0%
−83.7 pp
85.7%
Bot %2.0%
−83.7 pp
85.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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