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Will MrBeast's next video get between 59.25 and 60 million views in week 1?

data as of 2026-07-03 19:27 UTC▲ Higher win rate: No🗓️ settles Jul 4, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
25¢
NO
75¢
YES
25¢
YesY-NNo
Position$123−$250$373
Holders12+210
Trades48+1434
NO
75¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate45.9%
−21.2 pp
67.2%
Avg ROI10.2%
+1.6 pp
8.6%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.18
+0.21×
×0.97
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.93
−0.11×
×1.03
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$27
−$50
$77
Recent buyer dominance1.00
+0.06
0.94
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL8.0%
+11.0 pp
-3.0%
Underwater %67.0%
+21.3 pp
45.7%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %0.0%
−17.6 pp
17.6%
Bot %2.2%
−24.1 pp
26.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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