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Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?

data as of 2026-05-15 14:39 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$16K−$17K$32K
Holders95+3362
Trades1.3K−401.3K
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate67.1%
+10.7 pp
56.4%
Avg ROI-0.3%
−2.2 pp
1.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×61.77
+60.94×
×0.83
Top-20 avg cost vs price×61.69
+60.86×
×0.82
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$5
+$729
−$724
Recent buyer dominance0.92
+0.71
0.21
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-98.5%
−122.7 pp
24.2%
Underwater %99.9%
+99.9 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %22.7%
−24.9 pp
47.6%
Bot %22.7%
−24.9 pp
47.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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