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Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3PM ET

data as of 2026-05-04 19:57 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$5.2K−$8.3K$14K
Holders64−569
Trades1.1K+233867
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate45.7%
−17.6 pp
63.3%
Avg ROI0.6%
+0.3 pp
0.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×27.73
+27.03×
×0.70
Top-20 avg cost vs price×27.98
+27.29×
×0.69
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$63
−$355
$418
Recent buyer dominance0.94
+0.29
0.65
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-96.4%
−139.4 pp
43.0%
Underwater %97.4%
+97.4 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %50.6%
−22.8 pp
73.5%
Bot %50.6%
−24.6 pp
75.2%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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