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Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.0% or lower before 2027?

data as of 2026-02-13 10:37 UTC✓ on-chain▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Dec 31, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
7¢
NO
94¢
YES
7¢
YesY-NNo
Position$34−$16$49
Holders20+173
Trades78+6414
NO
94¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate37.9%
+37.9 pp
0.0%
Avg ROI11.9%
+11.9 pp
0.0%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×0.86
+0.86×
×0.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×0.92
+0.92×
×0.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$0
+$13
−$13
Recent buyer dominance0.00
+0.00
0.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL9.1%
+9.1 pp
0.0%
Underwater %26.7%
+26.7 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %66.4%
+66.4 pp
0.0%
Bot %66.4%
+66.4 pp
0.0%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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