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Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 4?

data as of 2026-05-04 10:11 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$344−$442$786
Holders32−133
Trades119+3683
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate47.5%
−20.9 pp
68.5%
Avg ROI-2.8%
−3.1 pp
0.3%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×24.68
+23.86×
×0.82
Top-20 avg cost vs price×19.62
+18.89×
×0.73
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$2
+$90
−$92
Recent buyer dominance0.00
−0.38
0.38
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-94.8%
−132.8 pp
38.0%
Underwater %93.9%
+65.4 pp
28.5%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %10.7%
−10.9 pp
21.6%
Bot %10.7%
−10.9 pp
21.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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