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Will the next Pope require 5–6 ballots?

data as of 2025-05-08 17:36 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$4.0K−$53K$57K
Holders202+14458
Trades1.0K+208797
NO
100¢
YesΔ YNNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate52.0%
−8.2 pp
60.2%
Avg ROI4.2%
+8.7 pp
-4.4%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×8.12
+7.21×
×0.90
Top-20 avg cost vs price×10.76
+9.89×
×0.88
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$21
−$790
$812
Recent buyer dominance0.68
−0.15
0.82
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-93.6%
−111.2 pp
17.6%
Underwater %89.3%
+79.5 pp
9.8%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %14.9%
−43.4 pp
58.3%
Bot %13.2%
−45.0 pp
58.3%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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