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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 3, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET

data as of 2025-10-03 20:29 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$192−$1.6K$1.7K
Holders15+411
Trades65+2243
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate9.8%
−70.7 pp
80.5%
Avg ROI23.6%
+22.4 pp
1.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×3.74
+2.76×
×0.98
Top-20 avg cost vs price×5.21
+4.30×
×0.90
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$107
−$685
$792
Recent buyer dominance0.99
−0.01
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-80.6%
−91.2 pp
10.6%
Underwater %93.3%
+93.3 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %4.5%
−28.5 pp
33.0%
Bot %4.3%
−28.3 pp
32.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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