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Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 11PM ET

data as of 2026-07-16 03:57 UTC● RESOLVEDDown won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
UP
0¢
DOWN✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
UP
0¢
UpU-DDown
Position$2.9K−$3.1K$6.0K
Holders59+158
Trades616−24640
DOWN
100¢
UpΔ U−DDown
Track record
Avg settle win rate50.3%
−1.5 pp
51.8%
Avg ROI1.5%
+0.4 pp
1.1%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×3.48
+2.89×
×0.60
Top-20 avg cost vs price×3.66
+3.08×
×0.58
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$228
−$377
$605
Recent buyer dominance0.95
+0.01
0.94
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-73.5%
−144.0 pp
70.5%
Underwater %97.6%
+97.3 pp
0.3%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %66.6%
+3.7 pp
62.8%
Bot %78.4%
+2.8 pp
75.6%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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