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Will Microsoft have the top AI model on October 31?

data as of 2025-09-29 16:57 UTC● RESOLVEDNo won — final settle priceTrade on Polymarket ↗
YES
0¢
NO✓ WON
100¢
⏸ Signals below are frozen at the last trade before this market resolved — they are not live.
YES
0¢
YesY-NNo
Position$-6−$11K$11K
Holders18−7694
Trades482+172310
NO
100¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate68.5%
−13.5 pp
82.0%
Avg ROI7.1%
+5.5 pp
1.6%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.00
+0.00×
×1.00
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.16
+0.16×
×1.00
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume$1
−$933
$934
Recent buyer dominance0.99
−0.01
1.00
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-5.2%
−5.3 pp
0.1%
Underwater %50.8%
+42.6 pp
8.2%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %50.6%
−47.3 pp
97.9%
Bot %50.6%
−47.2 pp
97.9%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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