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United Airlines (UAL) Q2 consolidated passenger load factor 85%-86%?

data as of 2026-06-27 03:05 UTC▲ Higher win rate: Yes🗓️ settles Jul 15, 2026Trade on Polymarket ↗
YES
28¢
NO
68¢
YES
28¢
YesY-NNo
Position$156−$229$385
Holders10−515
Trades85+4243
NO
68¢
YesΔ Y−NNo
Track record
Avg settle win rate55.8%
+7.8 pp
47.9%
Avg ROI5.5%
−0.4 pp
5.9%
Win-2x rate██
·
██
Avg profit factor██
·
██
Avg total profit██
·
██
Cost basis
Median cost vs price×1.16
+0.18×
×0.99
Top-20 avg cost vs price×1.18
+0.19×
×0.99
Fresh avg cost██
·
██
Grinder avg cost██
·
██
Flow
5m net volume−$6
+$8
−$14
Recent buyer dominance0.47
+0.31
0.16
Time-norm taker flow██
·
██
Position health
Unrealized PnL-14.7%
−16.1 pp
1.5%
Underwater %98.8%
+98.8 pp
0.0%
Avg hold hours██
·
██
Behavior
Early-entry %██
·
██
Partial-exit %██
·
██
Crowd
New wallets %2.8%
−17.8 pp
20.6%
Bot %0.0%
−24.7 pp
24.7%
Smart %██
·
██
Shark %██
·
██
Grinder %██
·
██
OG holder %██
·
██
Concentration
Holder HHI██
·
██
Holder gini██
·
██
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